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As the Republican primary process continues to evolve (some would say revolve) toward a nominee and President Obama pivots into “full campaign mode” there is little argument about what will determine who wins and who loses.
“It’s the Economy Stupid!
There are more complex issues for the “talking heads” on television and the “typing hands” on the political web sites to debate such as:
The Jobs Mirage.
Euro-Drag.
The Oil Slick
But voters will make their choices at the ballot box in November, largely based on their personal view of the economy and whether they are better off now than four years ago and who they believe will best improve their lives if elected president.
It is hard to recall a presidential year when there were so many economic wild cards, any one of which could tip the election's outcome
Unemployment will likely remain high, the housing crisis, while improving will not be solved, and there could be big changes to health care reform and immigration from the SCOTUS just before the election so each voter’s personal and family situation will play a big role in the election results.
According to standard political-science analysis of presidential re-election chances, the most important single factor is the state of the economy in the presidential year. This means not just the absolute unemployment and economic growth numbers, but whether voters feel things are improving.
With so many variables that can change and become more or less significant factors in the voting decision possible as November approaches, the election will remain too close to call until the polls close.
Comments, remarks and counterpoints are welcome and appreciated.
