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ROBERT IN OHIO

Independent with strong values and political opinions
Articles Posted: 19  Links Seeded: 41
Member Since: 11/2010  Last Seen: 5/17/2012

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Obama's Vulnerability With Swing Voters Showing

Seeded on Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:41 PM EST
Read ArticleArticle Source: The New York Times
politics, obama, south-carolina, congressional-republicans, new-york-timescbs, repibicans
Seeded by Robert in Ohio
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Many on the left will tell us that Pres Obama’s reelection is a foregone conclusion and just as many on the right will tells us that a one-term presidency is a certainty.

What’s the truth as usual it is somewhere in the middle.  The 2012 election is going to be a dog fight and it will likely not be decided until Election Day, as voters weight the state of the economy, their fears of the future and their hopes for real change against the messages of both sides.

As Mr. Obama moves toward a full-throated campaign, delivering a State of the Union address on Tuesday and inching closer to directly confronting his Republican challenger, a majority of independent voters have soured on his presidency, disapprove of how he has dealt with the economy and do not have a clear idea of what he hopes to accomplish if re-elected.

Americans are going to ask themselves if they are better off now than they were in January 2009 and under whose presidency will their future likely be the brightest.

The answer to that question, despite assurance from talking heads on both sides of political aisle, is very much in doubt.

The swing voters who will play a pivotal role in determining his political fate are up for grabs, the poll found, with just 31 percent expressing a favorable opinion of Mr. Obama. Two-thirds of independent voters say he has not made real progress fixing the economy.

Portions of the groundswell of support that swept Pres Obama into office in 2008 have become disenchanted with him as his administration has unfolded in Washington.

But Mr. Obama, whose job approval rating remains essentially frozen in the 40s, has considerable work to do rebuilding the coalition of voters who sent him to the White House. Independent voters have concerns about Mr. Obama on a variety of measures, including 6 in 10 who say the president does not share their priorities for the country.

“I trusted Obama would bring fresh ideas to the country and improve the economy, even though he was not experienced. It didn’t happen,” said Jay Hernandez, 54, a credit manager from Miami who said that he is not aligned with either party, in a follow-up interview. “If there were another Democratic candidate I might reconsider, but I won’t vote for Barrack Obama.”

So with the base losing faith in Hope and Change and the moderates and independents abandoning ship the Obama presidency is vulnerable, if (and that is a big if) the Republicans are able to close ranks and take advantage of that vulnerability.

Your comments, counterpoints and remarks are welcome and appreciated.

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  • Robert in Ohio's Column, All of Newsvine
  • Groups: Centervine, Mad As Hell!! Aren't You??, The Anti-Moron League, True Americans
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  • Public Discussion (45)
Robert in Ohio

Pres Obama is in full campaign mode trying to rally the base that swept him into office in 2008, but is struggling to stem the flow of moderates and independents away from his reelection campaign.

The Democratic base and the Republican base will vote as expected and the results in 2012 will turn on who garners the moderate, centrist and independent voters in November.

Remarks, counterpoints and comments are appreciated and welcomed.

  • 1 vote
Reply#1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:43 PM EST
Catch22

The word "growing" in the title isnt really supported in the article. If the word was in the orginal title it isnt now. The poll shows lack of enthusiasm to both parties with independent voters.

Pres Obama is in full campaign mode trying to rally the base that swept him into office in 2008, but is struggling to stem the flow of moderates and independents away from his reelection campaign.

There is little evidence of such a "flow" at this point especially among moderates. (Some people assume that Independents are "moderate" however this simplistic assumption isnt really warranted).

One thing that appears to be largely ignored is that while Americans are very frustrated with government and this is reflected in the polling numbers, it is worth noting that they tend to be LESS frustrated with the President than with Republicans.

When asked whom they trust, the poll found that Mr. Obama has an advantage over Congressional Republicans in making the right decisions about creating jobs, health care, Medicare and Social Security. Yet the gap narrows on the economy — the chief concern among voters — with 44 percent of Americans saying they trust Mr. Obama and 40 percent saying they trust Republicans in Congress.

The public is evenly split on whom they trust to deal with the budget deficit, which the poll found to be the public's second most important issue.

But Americans are also far more apt to blame Republicans than the president for failing to find common ground and passing legislation. An overwhelming number of Americans support compromise over sticking to positions. A majority of people say Mr. Obama is trying to work with Republicans in order to get things done, while two-thirds say Republicans in Congress are not trying to work with Mr. Obama.

  • 5 votes
#1.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:23 PM EST
Robert in Ohio

Catch22

Good point, I edited the title from growing to showing.

The point on Congressional Republicans is a good one, but Pres obama is not running for Congress so it is slightly moot IMO

Thanks for the catch and the perspective

  • 4 votes
#1.2 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:05 PM EST
Catch22

The point on Congressional Republicans is a good one, but Pres obama is not running for Congress so it is slightly moot IMO

IMHO the mood towards Republicans (and Democrats) generally will have an impact on the election results. The election is a national one with Congress on the ballot. Meanwhile Congress has some of its lowest approvals in history. The Republican brand had a resurgence in 2010 with the teaparty but is now facing buyers remorse. The 2012 election is not only going to be different from 2008 but also very different from 2010.

When I look at the evidence I believe it supports the picture that the people are not satisfied with the current state of affairs. This is bad news for an incumbent President, however, a lot of the other evidence suggests that even more people are dissastisfied with the Republicans, allocate substantial blame the Republicans for getting us in this terrible mess in the first place.

This election isnt just about tearing down the other guy, its also about providing a vision that people can rally around. The GOP Primary has become attack the leader, time will tell whether they rally around the eventual nominee.

  • 4 votes
#1.3 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:56 PM EST
Robert in Ohio

Catch22

How that conundrum works out in the minds of the voters will give us the 2012 President

  • 4 votes
#1.4 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:05 PM EST
Reply
katlin

I still think it will depend all on the way the economy goes.. if obama can convince the crowds that the economy looks even a little bit better all will be forgiven, even tho i believe any progress made in the economy is in spite of him not because of him...if the economy worsens and there is a very big chance it will obama is toast.....

obama has been in campaign mode since jan 2009....I think it hilarious that he is so insecure that he is following the repubs around after their primaries of late, now they are going to close off disney world for his visit to supposedly promote tourism, how ironic..again he’s only there because the repubs are there again...

  • 6 votes
#2 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:21 PM EST
Robert in Ohio

Katlin

I think you have a good point on the economy.

A lot of votes will depend on how the voter feels about his/her present situation and his/her outlook on their personal future.

I think that Pres Obama is a lot less sure about his reelection than his supporters on the NV are which is why he is working so hard

Thanks for the input

  • 3 votes
#2.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:08 PM EST
Catch22

I think that Pres Obama is a lot less sure about his reelection than his supporters on the NV are which is why he is working so hard

Frankly, I find such sweeping generalizations to be unhelpful. I support the President of the United States, I am under no illusion that the election will be easy or guaranteed. At the moment I believe that his election is slightly more likely than not, however, the could change if the Republicans are able to rally around their nominee.

I still think it will depend all on the way the economy goes.. if obama can convince the crowds that the economy looks even a little bit better all will be forgiven,

A lot of Americans remember that the nation had perhaps the worst economic conditions in United States history before Obama came into office. The economic conditions have been slowly improving overall since before the end of the first year in office. The nation was in crisis when the President came into office, a crisis that was years in the making and will be years in the fixing.

Whatever you think about the President, a lot of people do not think that a return to the policies of the GOP and the Bush administration when they controlled all of the branches is goog for America. That is exactly what the Republicans and those vying for the nomination are offering, America.

  • 3 votes
#2.2 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:03 PM EST
Robert in Ohio

Catch22

I stand by the view that the majority of NV supporters of the Pres are confident that his reelection is in the bag

I espect your contrary view

Thanks for your perspective

  • 3 votes
#2.3 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:07 PM EST
katlin

will obama be re-elected--? I really don’t know..at this point it still could go either way and no one should count their chickens so to speak..obama so far has offended both the right and left..neither like him now so his job will depend on how the independents go and I think they will vote the economy.... .obama has screwed up big, of that there is no doubt but the repubs also have a huge hurdle to convince them that they will do better...I personally really hope they can do it..obama for the next 4 yrs will kill us..

  • 4 votes
#2.4 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:10 PM EST
Robert in Ohio

katlin

I am not 100% confident that a Republican in the White House is the answer to all our problems but I agree that the election is still up in the air and it will turn on the voters' feelings on the economy when they are ready to vote

    #2.5 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:21 PM EST
    katlin

    I am not 100% confident that a Republican in the White House is the answer to all our problems

    neither am i--nor do i expect that one party would be the answer to all our problems as that is not realistic..I am really disappointed in BOTH parties and libertarians are looking better to me..but i still feel that so far obama is the WORST solution.....I don’t fully agree with either party, and it is unrealistic to think either one will automatically FIX anything, but I think the less gov interference in our lives the better and that is where dems and I really part ways..

    • 4 votes
    #2.6 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:40 PM EST
    Robert in Ohio

    katlin

    I tend to agree that some other leadership, along with some changes in the chambers of Congress is likely to lead more substantive changes for the better than four more years of the partisan gridlock that have experienced for the past three years.

    I also agree that both parties gave failed the American people.

    Change is definitely needed, and the election will show what change the people think is sufficient to effect the changes we need

    Thanks for the back and forth and the excellent points

    • 2 votes
    #2.7 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:46 PM EST
    katlin

    thanks Robert for a intelligent discussion without insults , it is rare here on NV...

    • 4 votes
    #2.8 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:19 PM EST
    Robert in Ohio

    katlin

    I am seeing more and more rational debate and disagreement and it is indeed refreshing

    • 1 vote
    #2.9 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:21 PM EST
    lib50

    I'm impressed by the tone as well.

    I have issues with Obama, but they are minor compared with the issues I have with the republicans. I take issue with almost all of their economic policies (and social ones as well). I see Obama governing as a moderate republican and I see congress as almost worthless. I don't think it will be easy for Obama, but the way its going with the republicans I don't see them winning. All of them have major issues and have swung way too far to the right.

    • 3 votes
    #2.10 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:54 PM EST
    Robert in Ohio

    lib50

    Good points, the key as I am seeing it is whether the independents and the moderates of both parties will vote to give Pres Obama another chance or determine that someone else could easily do as well and might do better than Pres Obama

    That is the choice to be made in Nov

    • 1 vote
    #2.11 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:04 PM EST
    JAVE

    A lot of Americans remember that the nation had perhaps the worst economic conditions in United States history before Obama came into office

    I'm not so sure that is true. Most people judge the situation they are in. If the economy is in shambles but you have a job, things seems much better then an improving economy while you're out of work.

    • 5 votes
    #2.12 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:34 PM EST
    Robert in Ohio

    JAVE

    I think that most people remember that the economy was a mess when Pres Obama took office, but they also realize that things have only marginally (if at all) improved on his watch

    Sluggish job growth (there are still nearly 2 million more people out of work than when the Pres took office), steady but minimal GDP growth and a continuing and crushing housing market are indeed points of fact to be considered in the election prices this year.

    Thanks for stopping by and sharing your perspective,

    • 2 votes
    #2.13 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:33 AM EST
    gmross

    Jave, what I remember before Obama became president is that the stock market had plummeted 4000 points in six months, we were bleeding jobs at 700,000 a month to other country's the banks were failing, housing was a bust and people were losing their homes at an alarming rate, companies were closing their doors faster than they were opening them, and the president was sitting on his hands until the people started screaming at him to do something. And who was the president? George W. Bush.

    • 2 votes
    #2.14 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:41 AM EST
    Robert in Ohio

    gmross

    A fair recap of the situation when Pres Obama took office with the promise of getting the nation back on track, of getting American back to work and with the promise of real change in the way things are done in Washington.

    Some things have improved and some have not

    That is what the president will be judged on in Nov

    Thanks for the perspective

    • 2 votes
    #2.15 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:45 AM EST
    Reply
    demo scout

    This is interesting garbage. Just yesterday a poll was released that showed Obama leading Romney by 5 points in a head to head match up and leading every other Republican by even more. And contrary to the premise of this article those polled who identified themselves as moderates favored Obama by either 63% or 68% as I recall. So who are you going to believe. Any moderate or independent who thinks he or she has a better shot at a future with any of the Republicans needs to see a clinical psychologist immediately. That is unless you are one of those "people" who are really corporations.

    • 1 vote
    Reply#3 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:11 PM EST
    Robert in Ohio

    demo scout

    Thanks for your intellectual and well reasoned perspective

    I guess the differences illustrate that poll numbers can be used to prove multiple premises

      #3.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:14 PM EST
      Reply
      G. H.

      I'm not disillusioned with President Obama. He's still the only reasonable choice I can see.

      • 4 votes
      Reply#4 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:08 PM EST
      gmross

      The only choices we have for POTUS is a man who was raised to beleive that he is better than everyone else because he was raised with a silver spoon in his mouth and a man that grew up poor but, made good through a great education. In other words Romney (the richer guy) or Obama (the poor guy that made good).

      • 3 votes
      #4.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:11 PM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      gmross

      If you consider Pres Obama a "poor guy" then you must have a pile of money that you call your own.

      All of the candidates for president (including Obama) are rich and that is hardly a differentiator that should be used ot make a choice for president anyway.

      We do not yet know who the Republican nominee will be or whether there will be a third party candidate so it is much too soon to declare what "out choices" are

      Thanks for stopping by

      • 3 votes
      #4.2 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:18 PM EST
      Tessy

      But President Obama didn't grow up rich. Nothing was handed to him. He had to work hard to be a success. Romney was born with a silver spoon in his mouth and has no idea what it means to actually work for a living.

      So your dismissal of gmross' points was kind of snarky. President Obama wasn't born with a silver spoon in his mouth and I believe he knows more about the struggles of everyday people. Just because President Obama is rich now, has no bearing on how he grew up.

      Newt doesn't stand a chance either it seems except with the rabid racists and teapartiers.

      • 3 votes
      #4.3 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:42 AM EST
      Tessy

      I also don't feel that President Obama is all that vulnerable. With all the dismal choices on the right, I don't believe they stand a chance (the right that is).

      • 3 votes
      #4.4 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:58 AM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      Tessy

      Thanks for stopping by with your perspective

      Being part of the elite 1% is very much like being pregnant (you either are or you are not) and Pres Obama(try as he might to hide it from view) is certainly part of that group and very chummy with those wall streeters that he occasionally rails against (though they fund his campaign just like everyone else who donates).

      Pres Obama never "worked for a living" either, he organized communities and went to college on the government's dime and then lectured at UofC (not exactly a common laborer who had to work to live).

      A lot of people agree with you that the election is a foregone conclusion and the opponents of Pres Obama are counting on that complacency in November.

      Thanks agfain for stopping by

      • 1 vote
      #4.5 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:38 AM EST
      Tessy

      So organizing communities and going to college on the government's dime - as you claim - are worthless? He is a very intelligent man and he must have had scholarships, he would have had to do something to make a living while going to college. Being a lecturer, well there's absolutely nothing wrong with that, so what if he didn't have to be a 'common laborer'. It just sounds like it doesn't matter what he did in your opinion. Whether he had a career in academics or was a 'common laborer who had to work to live' does not to me negate how he made his living.

      As far as the 1% remarks - well he didn't grow up rich, he had to do something to earn it. It was not just handed to him.

      Your comments just seem to drip with disdain over anything President Obama has done prior to becoming President.

      At any rate, your 'opinion' is just as valid as mine.

      • 3 votes
      #4.6 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:33 AM EST
      gmross

      Robert in Ohio,

      If you consider Pres Obama a "poor guy" then you must have a pile of money that you call your own.

      Obama didn't grow up with a silver spoon in his mouth like Romney did, his mother used food stamps and government help to raise him, so, he knows how it is for the rest of us, this is what I am talking about when I say he was a poor guy that made good. Romney's money, at least part of it came from his daddy.

      • 3 votes
      #4.7 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:45 AM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      gmross

      potatos - potatoes

      They are both rich and I for one (and I think there are many others) see it that way

      • 2 votes
      #4.8 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:47 AM EST
      lib50

      I don't think "rich" is the problem. I have no problem with "rich". The problem is a system that has morphed over the last few decades to SERVE the rich. We can see who advocates for policies that are passed to ensure protection for the top, and who likes to blame the bottom. We can see that trickle down economics has been an abject failure for our society. It isn't their bank account, it is how it got there and what they want to do when they get in office. I think one of the biggest misconceptions in discussion of wealth/income disparity is that we don't think anybody should be rich. That is not the case.

      • 2 votes
      #4.9 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:38 AM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      lib50

      Good points

      • 1 vote
      #4.10 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:56 AM EST
      lib50

      I just sent you a friends request. You are one of a few people that make good points even when we disagree.

      • 1 vote
      #4.11 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:26 PM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      lib50

      Accepted with gratitude

      I also enjoy the tough back and forth with you on debate issues

      I learn a lot from your posts and the posts of others that do not agree with my views and appreciate them all.

      • 1 vote
      #4.12 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:30 PM EST
      Reply
      58rose

      NEWT IN 2012

      • 2 votes
      Reply#5 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:12 PM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      58rose

      I am not yet convinced that the pendulum will swing that far, let's see what happens Saturday in South Carolina before anointing Newt as the nominee.

      • 1 vote
      #5.1 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:40 AM EST
      gmross

      Both Newt and Mitt carry some heavy baggage, 58rose, I think time will tell who gets the nod.

      • 2 votes
      #5.2 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:49 AM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      gmross

      All candidates always have baggage and skeletons that come out in the campaign and the political theater of 2012 will not be without both as the Republican nominee is chosen and the campaign continues

      • 2 votes
      #5.3 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:57 AM EST
      58rose

      yes Robert, it like the dems have never seen a campaign before. it is where all the dirt comes out. it is no matter the 0 will be gone in 2012.

      • 2 votes
      #5.4 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:15 PM EST
      gmross

      Keep dreamin 58. ;-)

      • 1 vote
      #5.5 - Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:25 AM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      58rose

      Pres Obama is taking the challenge of reelection very seriously because it is by no means in the bag. He will be running against the nad economy and the peoples' fear of the future as well as the Republican opponent.

      gmross

      It will be a close race IMO

      Thanks for both of you for your perspectives

      • 2 votes
      #5.6 - Sat Jan 21, 2012 8:19 AM EST
      Reply
      Joanna Caroll

      Obama presidency is vulnerable

      Probably true. Who wouldn't want a Romney as president or a Gingrich? Romney and Gingrich possess such special traits..a blonde wife. That's all I've got. Good luck to us if that's all we've got - Romney or Gingrich. UGH

      • 1 vote
      Reply#6 - Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:40 PM EST
      Robert in Ohio

      Joanna

      I think that there are many people in the country that will agree with you

      I also think that there are a lot of people who would say "...four more years of Obama, ugh!"

      And there are is a large number of folks shaking heir heads and saying "....Gingrich, Obama, Romney,,,,,OMG what are we going to do?"

      Thanks for the perspective

      • 2 votes
      #6.1 - Thu Jan 26, 2012 8:20 AM EST
      Reply
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